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Can Mike Huckabee Win?

by svip at 11-02-2008 00:19

With Romney leaving and Paul probably doing the same, the Republican candidate primary is down to McCain, Huckabee and that third guy Keyes, whom everyone would go "who the fuck?" when you say he is running for the nomination for president. Interestingly, he is black.

But since McCain and Huckabee are the only serious candidates left - I mean, we don't think Mike Gravel from the Democrats is going to win, are we? - I will focus on these two. Current, McCain has 736 (30%) and Huckabee 213 (9%) (at the time of writing) delegates. Obviously, Huckabee is trailing behind. But Huckabee insists that he can win this thing. And he predicts that he can win Texas, which would award him 140 delegates if he win. And how is he doing in opinion polls in Texas? Not good... or is he?

Romney seems to be the clear winner in Texas, but he is out. And since a lot of right win Republicans do not feel comfortable voting for McCain because he is too moderate, they will most likely vote for Huckabee instead, which would give him 50% of the votes, winning that hands down.

But 140 delegates will only get him to 353, still far from McCain's 736 delegates. He must win more states, and more importantly, avoid McCain in doing the same.

Mike Huckabee will undoubtedly get more delegates. But the distance to McCain's is simply too far. I like you, Huckabee, despite I disagree with you on so many issues, but this game cannot be won. Which will (unfortunately for the Republicans) mean an easier election for the Democrats at the end. Cause the far right Christians in the Republican party do not like McCain for being moderate, and may even boycott the election, thus letting the Democrats win. But that is another topic of discussion.